Certified arabica stocks on the ICE exchange have fallen to around 226,000 bags, very close to the November 2023 low of 224,000 bags. A further drop would take stocks to their lowest level since 1999, according to data cited by Perfect Daily Grind.
A Reuters poll of analysts estimates that the arabica price could fall towards $3 per pound by the end of the year, while robusta could recover slightly, towards $3,900 per tonne. Over the longer term, analysts anticipate a global surplus of 1.7 million bags for the 2025/26 season and more than 8 million bags in 2026/27.
Supply pressure nevertheless remains high: Colombia’s production fell 23% year on year, to 1.06 million bags in a single month, because of unfavourable weather. These developments influence the price of specialty coffee and roasters’ costs around the world.
In the meantime, explore the coffee selection available at Mister Tabaco.
Source: Perfect Daily Grind